Actually, I don't have much more to add to that, Ron -- that's the jist of it.

Couple of other quick comments...

1) NHC: 100mph at 5pm, forecast for 140mph in the Caribbean. That's pretty reasonable.

2) Very good points made by dem05 about the Gulfstream aircraft and what it means to the track forecast. Don't have anything to add to it.

3) Most of the "early" 18z models did come a little north in the Gulf in the 4-5 day time frame, but not as far as the GFDL was earlier. I wouldn't put much stock in exact locations that far out even today.

4) Saw something from Steve about daytime convection versus the diurnal maximum -- at night in the tropics, the upper levels of the atmosphere cool off, enhancing the sea surface to upper level (truly outflow level) temperature gradient. This is known to enhance convection in general and enhance the efficiency of tropical systems in particular. There are other factors at play, but that's another part of it. Over land, heating during the day drives convection (the standard "CAPE" or available energy arguments) since the landmasses cool off much more significantly than bodies of water at night, counteracting any upper level cooling that may help enhance temperature gradients.