Clark
(Meteorologist)
Fri Aug 17 2007 05:48 AM
Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles

That New England "Hurricane" of 1938 was also likely very much extratropical as it was doing so, just like Wilma as it accelerated to 50+ mph in 2005. Different storm maintenance mechanisms at play there so they aren't directly comparable.

However, Shawn, moving at 25mph isn't really hurting Dean right now and probably won't; it's other factors that tend to combine with the fast forward speed to put a squash on weak disturbances and keep them from closing off low level circulations. Dean doesn't fall into that category at all right now; it's not some mid-level circulation extraordinare without anything at the surface. I don't think that's a concern right now.

Re: debate over where you want the storm to make landfall -- that's sorta getting borderline on decorum here on the forums. For interests in the US, yes, a Mexico landfall would be better; but remember, there are people in the other nations that would be dealing with it then as well. Also remember that there are people from other nations who do read this and other forums, and they aren't going to take too kindly to suggestions that it should hit them. Hoping that you don't want a storm to hit you is fine, as obviously very very few people ever do, but try to refrain from saying that it should hit somewhere else in particular.

All that said...onto Dean. The big player is going to be the upper low near Florida and how it evolves as it moves west over the next few days. How much interaction does Dean have with it, if any? The speeds of both features will determine that answer. Tied to that is the question of the ridge over the southeast US -- how strong will it build in, leading to how fast will it steer both the upper low and Dean? Will there be a weakness on its western side to help lift Dean more to the north as it enters the Gulf? Those east of the Mississippi River don't need to worry about this one; the same can probably be said about Louisiana too. Texas is still iffy, even though I think that Dean's ultimate track will probably clip the southern end of the state at most. That said, we've got 5-6 days to watch it and there will be plenty of time to make preparations and adjustments if need be.



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