Around 30 minutes ago, recon recorded flight-level winds of 116 knots and 104 knots at the surface with the SFMR. That should lead to another bump in the intensity on the next advisory, probably to 100 or 105 knots (cat 3).

While the 12Z GFS seemed to come in a little further south, the 12Z GFDL has made another shift to the north and east. Here are the lat/lon coords from the 12Z GFDL:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=WBCCHGQLM

While Dean will likely be a major threat anywhere it hits, that track would be a particularly bad one. The GFDL is still an outlier, but it is adding some drama to the track forecast.