Right now from the 12z runs..most have gone more NE by about 100 miles on average for the first 60hrs..after that..models spread on a bend back to the west near Jamaica or just north of there to a brush with Cuba and crossing the western part. I wouldnt get worried if I was in the Keys or the central or eastern gulf yet unless the next couple model runs continue a more northward track. Again as I always say...models change from run to run and anything more then 3 days out decreases the accuracy. With Dean anything more then 48hrs cause by then how will the upper low situate.