That's a point the NHC always tries to make...the models can be seriously off after 3 days. Heck they've flipped all over the place with Dean from run to run...about the only thing the models seem certain on is Jamacia is in the crosshairs. ..because of questions in the ridge & the movement & effects of the ULL, everything after that is a crapshoot.
Because of the obvious vuneralabilty of La..both before & most importantly after Katrina...the latest GFDL is worrisome. Not to mention the effects of a landfalling major in this spot to the rest of the country.
Someone asked for links to models. On the main page are links to various model sites although I know earlier the fsu site was experiencing loading problems.
As an aside Dean is looking quite impressive & has proven to be an interesting & even nail biting storm to track.