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That's a point the NHC always tries to make...the models can be seriously off after 3 days. Heck they've flipped all over the place with Dean from run to run...about the only thing the models seem certain on is Jamacia is in the crosshairs. ..because of questions in the ridge & the movement & effects of the ULL, everything after that is a crapshoot.
Because of the obvious vuneralabilty of La..both before & most importantly after Katrina...the latest GFDL is worrisome. Not to mention the effects of a landfalling major in this spot to the rest of the country.
Someone asked for links to models. On the main page are links to various model sites although I know earlier the fsu site was experiencing loading problems.
As an aside Dean is looking quite impressive & has proven to be an interesting & even nail biting storm to track.
Glad you made that point, because i often think whether they should get rid of the 5 day cone, as it seems to be pretty useless. I wonder if there is a any study as of the effectiveness of the five day cone compared to getting people ready and focused on the storm. As for Dean, just looked at the sat image, very impressive. I have close friends that live in Jamaica, I am getting nervous. Considering how the GFDL is acting, would not be surprised to see a good shift in the 5 or maybe 11 pm track or at least the 5 day cone.
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Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles