Steve H1
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Aug 17 2007 04:03 PM
Re: Major Hurricane Dean Moving Westward

Some interesting Info for the current storm and other observations from the HPC.


...TROPICS...
HURRICANE DEAN AIMS AT JAMAICA/YUCATAN AND NERN MEXICO/SRN TX. SEE
TPC/NHC ADVISORIES/WARNINGS. UPSTREAM CONDS REMAIN FAVORABLE OVER
WRN 3/4 OF THE TROPICAL ATLC/CARRIBEAN/GLFMEX AND TROP EPAC FOR
DEVELOPMENT OR SUSTAINING TROP SYSTEMS AS INDICATED BY CHI
VERTICAL VELOCITY POTENTIAL CHARTS OF GFS/ECMWF AND GFS/ECMWF OP
AND ENSEMBLE 200-850 WIND SHEAR FORECASTS. RECENT OUTSTANDING LONG
TERM FORECAST OF DEAN BY GFS IS A HEADS UP TO PAY ATTENTION TO ANY
ADDITIONAL LONG TERM FORECASTS BY THIS MODEL ESP WITH CAPE VERDE
TYPE SYSTEMS. AT LEAST TWO WAVES ARE NOTED BY GFS ON RECENT RUNS
BUT WITH ONLY LIMITED DEVELOPMENT. FIRST COMES INTO THE BAHAMAS
LATE NEXT WEEK WHILE THE SECOND COMES INTO THE WINDWARDS. EVER
AGRESSIVE CANADIAN DEPICTION OF A STRONGER SOLUTION THAN A
TROPICAL WAVE IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE GIVEN FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDS INDICATED BY OTHER MODELS ESP WITH THE BAHAMAS SYSTEM LATE
NEXT WEEK. SEE TPC DISCUSSIONS OVER THE NEXT WEEK.