Thunderbird12
(Meteorologist)
Fri Aug 17 2007 09:18 PM
Re: Major Hurricane Dean Moving Westward

The latest forecast track does look like it is slightly further south at the end of the period than the last one, but not in any significant way. The forecast will remain roughly the same until there is a change in the model consensus or a stronger signal that the storm is going to deviate from the track.

It is important to keep in mind that the steering regime will not be consistent over the next several days, so short-term changes in motion may not end up reflected in the long term. For example, Dean could drift a little further north than expected in the short term (as it already has a little today), but if the ridge builds in to the north, it could end up taking a more westerly track in the longer term. Or the opposite could occur. I will be surprised if the eventual track is as much of a straight line as the forecast indicates, though overall it could still end up being a good forecast.



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