| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Aug 17 2007 11:38 PM |
Re: Major Hurricane Dean Moving Westward
|
Quote:
Yup...but modellers use a technique called vortex bogusing in situations like this. If you initalize a model with a 960-ish vortex the model doesn't like it at ALL, so the vortex is 'bogused" and raised in SLP to something the model can handle. This is done on purpose, and the it pretty much averages out in the first few time steps of of the model run.
Does a 960-ish vortex really behave the same as a 980-ish vortex, though? I assume there is sufficient evidence to indicate that it does, but it seems like the model output would be of questionable validity - garbage in, garbage out situation, you know. As the 'cane gets more powerful, too, it would seem that the models would be more suspect because of this difference in initialization. Or do they do something else to compensate for the pressure bogusing?
Random Chaos: I can't read that recon report (I'm no good at reading those formats), but the 123kts at the surface is about what I would estimate, based upon the IR presentation. Not saying it's accurate, just what I would expect looking at the imagery.
Will the NHC issue another "full" Special Advisory package to upgrade Dean to a Cat 4, and up the intensity on the forecast, like they did just six short hours ago?