The number 15 express has departed...I'm trying to be a bit humorous here on a Friday Night

Dean reached 15 north and has rode along that same latitude like along freight train on rails. Earlier today, everyone was concerned that Dean seemed alittle north of path, and he may be going elsewhere. Bottom line is this, if you trimline everything, Dean remains on the "Here to Jamaica" path. Don not get overly concerned about a little north of path, and little west of path for thenext 36 hours. This will happen and it means little.

Later on, and beyond Jamaica, the Riddler would have a field day. Being in SW Florida, I still think a visit from Dean is a wildcard. However, to phrase the ever and always confident and and straigh forward NHC Hurricane Specialist Avila at the the 5PMdiscussion, he offerred a blanket statement. Coming from him,this is a more significant message and he posted it at the end of the discussion.

"THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT DEAN IS EXPECTED TO BE A DANGEROUS HURRICANE
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND ALL INTERESTS IN THE CARIBBEAN
SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
DEAN."

I only mention this becuase a lot of folks are stating Alabama westward and etc. Florida Folks, it is not very likely that we will see something from this one, but keep in mind that it is out there and there are some atmospheric dynamics that could create a surprise change in course. If those changes in the forecast philospophy occur, you may need to take action...Just something to keep in mind in case of a surprise...With that said, I do not expect any major surprises at this time, but Saturday night into Sunday may be a day of truth along the Gulf...Everyone will have a much better idea of the upper ridge/trough/ULL interaction by then.

Otherwise, nothing much new to report in my thinking that hasn't already been said.