Mike N
(Verified CFHC User)
Fri Aug 17 2007 11:48 PM
Re: Dean Reaches Category 4 Strength

First, thanks to all pros, semi-pros and all the others with insightful comments. This is the most informative hurricane site on the net! (That I've found at least) I am a 3 year lurker with little comments - just enjoy the reading. A few thoughts I've had that never seem to be answered.

Few Things: Dem05 posted yesterday about watching the ULL over the Bahamas and it's obvious consequences in determining Dean's ultimate track. The ULL hasn't moved that much - maybe roughly 100 mi WSW to just off West Palm. This pace is slow. If Dean was to get to a position due S of the ULL which direction would he want to be pulled. Wasn't it supposed to have been moving faster already? Also, NHC mentioned that it should weaken as it progresses westward. I know they were probably talking about as it traverses the GOM but looking at WV - how does one tell if it is weakening? Does the spin pace slow and it starts to open up if you will? Also, there is a lot of talk about the ridge...what's the best way to see this ridge? WV? Again, what am I looking for? On WV now, between the ULL over the Bahamas and the ULL roughly located at 27N 52W there is a line where black starts to meet brown situated from 29N 70W running SE to 23N 55W...is this the ridge? I know there are not exact answers to all of these questions, if there were, we'd all know where Dean is going. Any insight on some of the basic questions I'm sure would help everyone.

Dem05 - what is your day by day analysis tongiht? I was looking forward to your follow up thoughts from how things progressed from last night as you saw them.

Thanks and God Bless to all wherever this thing ends up.



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