GuppieGrouper
(Weather Master)
Sat Aug 18 2007 09:30 AM
Re: 00Z Models

I am generally not a model watcher because of cynicism towards technology being a person designed entity and therefore intrinsically flawed. But, I have been running water vapor loops in the last two hours showing the past 12 or more hours of hurricane and atmospheric changes. To summarize, all the key elements for steering are changing rapidly. I have noticed a big high pressure coming down from the northwest which seems to be moving slightly faster to the east than any of the ULLs are moving to the west. I will make a small prediction that this pressure system will change everything 180 degrees in the next 12 hours or so. I am not sure whether that will take Texas and points west totally out of the loop or not, but the hurricane's rapid progress forward has already dropped by 7 mph reported . I am watching closely due to a sick family member in the Panhandle. I will have to know when to leave Central Florida if the 180 turn should occur so that I can avoid the evacuation traffic from Key West. I am watching closely and intelligently. I would recommend others do the same. I believe the time for model watching has come to an end and we should be preparing for the worst and hoping for the best.


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