MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Sat Aug 18 2007 12:32 PM
Re: 00Z Models

The latest recon shows about the same windspeed as in the advisory, and the pressure down to 926mb, and since the next two or three days are going to be critical for the ultimate mainland landfall location, I'm sure there is a lot of "no it's moving more north-- no it's moving more west" type of observations, which are always interesting...

Intense Hurricanes with eyes like Dean tend to wobble around like a spinning top, and it's hard to gauge if something is a trend, or a wobble. The SSD satellites with the forecast track overlays are helpful here, but I think bare minimum is a 4 frame change to really see if something is a wobble or a true movement.




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