Dean has resumed its WNW after moving due west for much of the evening last night, but overall it appears to be right on track (unfortunately) for Jamaica. While it is slightly north of the projected path at its current position, keep in mind that the last forecast had a more westerly motion early in the period before more of a turn to the WNW towards Jamaica. Dean will end up right on the forecast track again around Jamaica if it keeps its present bearing long enough.

The 06Z GFDL came in a lot further south. It is still on the northern fringe of guidance, but brings Dean through the Yucatan for the first time before heading into the Gulf and making landfall in south Texas.