i'm still not sure what to make of dean's jogs. don't suspect that the relationships for steering that existed yesterday have changed all that much, as dean has bled some speed and is making up for the due westward motion in the evening. model guidance is more to the left (though some of the upper initializations are called into question for the gfs) overall... same basic camps persist. i don't think we'll see much aside from the nhc official today or tomorrow, with the only interesting side notes being how the hurricane interacts with the caribbean islands. be interesting to see if hispaniola and then maybe cuba do the windfield-warp thing and tug the hurricane north of jamaica.
back behind dean it's hard to make any sense of the wave jumble. the one behind dean slowed down so that it's follower is catching it... with most of its energy shunting ahead off to the north, and the leader tucking up underneath closer to the itcz. it's hard to resolve how this complex mess will initiate another system. the part going by to the north is progged to get north of the islands and interact with the upper trough off the east coast, split some, and have a bit of its energy drift towards the bahamas. cmc makes a storm out of this (has for days), while the other globals see just an inverted trough. none of the models buy much into the leader wave east of the islands, with outflow from dean washing over it. the itcz bump further east from the trailer wave seems to spawn another system on the gfs suite, though, and that creates another storm on it by next weekend. hard to trust exactly what the gfs is thinking from there.. it moves nw towards a then large trough near the east coast, and ends up in the gulf by labor day weekend. of course these individual features can't be trusted right now, only watched for persistence. the niggardly way the gfs has suggested tropical activity this season and it's seeming enthusiasm for sending more to the table has me thinking that there will be something there regardless of whether the details are close to right.
HF 1412z18august