Tom -

As you and others here are indicating, very true how so many "little flies in the ointment", may at least minimally impact Dean. Its amazing how intricate and yet related, are the many upstream or downstream weather systems, along with even a slight influence can have on what may or may not be a direct hit on Jamaica ( or other land masses ). A quick footnote on what some of the models are picking up on, regarding a new eventual system east of Florida -
-- It is quite curious how what appears to be some small convective vorticity starting to spin up in the Bahamas. It is in what would appear to be a shear environment on the east side of the ULL over the E. gulf, and yet appears to have a small anticyclonic flow on its eastern side. Probably a transitory low on what appears to be an old frontal trough, which would typically fly off to the N.E., however in light of what most models are picking up on ( rebuilding ridging ), it would be an interesting sub-plot if a small system were to suddenly form off Fla. southeast coast. Though I doubt this will prove to be any kind of a "player" in Dean's evolutionary forward motion, "if" it were to develop I could see some slight and temporary influence on Dean's forward motion.

Andy