I understand that hurricanes are extremley complicated to predict, at least as far as future track is concerned.
And I understand that the NHC, models, and forecasting tools have continued to increase in skill. Having said
that I have seen numerous situations where a storm just 3 days out way predicted to go one place and went
another. (And I'm not just talking 50 or 60 miles. Sometimes more than a few 100.)
To answer one persons comment about why no one is paying attention to Dean in the St. Pete area.
When you have forcasters say it's NOT going to affect your area they are on a slippery slope. I know better than to
let my guard down even when forcasters are showing no impact to my area because of the simple fact that
things change. The atmosphere is constantly changing and there are certian factors that can sometimes not
be seen that cause storms to do crazy thing. Keeping this in mind I watch intently what Dean is doing, knowing
that Dean is probally going where they say it is, but there is always an off chance it's not. Being ready in the
event things change, and hoping they don't. So as for Dean continue to keep a watchful eye, time will tell where
He will go.