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Is it just me or does the CIMSS 200-700 MB Layer Analysis show that the upper-low has had a slight southwestwards movement today? I could see that if this low moves farther south, it could "pull" Dean northwestwards more than anticipated. Maybe this is where the GFDL is getting its solution.
I have not yet looked at the CIMISS 200-700 MB Layer Analysis.. but... the water vapor loop caused me to believe the same thing - the low appears to have moved southwest, and I can see how this could pull Dean more poleward than any of the models may anticipate. Having said that, it really depends upon where the low goes in relationship to Dean from here on out.
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Re: Dean v. Louisiana?