Lamar-Plant City
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Aug 18 2007 07:55 PM
Re: Dean v. Louisiana?

Quote:

It does indeed look like there has been a jog due west. Maybe this will allow Dean to move south of Jamaica and spare them.




Passing closely to the south of Jamaica is not a whole lot better than directly overhead. At this point, from where Dean is, you would hope for it to go to the north of the island since the worst weather and stonger wind field is usually on the north side of a storm. Also passing to the north, they wouldn't experience winds that combine the rotational speed of the storm (~150mph) with the forward speed of 18 mph...that makes about a 35mph difference from the N side of this storm to the S side....at least that is how I have been lead to understand it. This more westward movement tonight could be a trend or could just be a continuation of what now looks like a slow overall pattern of wobbling (VERY slow). This should mean a more northward wobble beginning sometime after midnight EST.....just my own interpretation...anyone else what to touch that idea?



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