I did get a message from a fellow poster that my post was confusing/ sounding greek in my post. If I got a bit to wordy, I do apologize. I think there will be a fair amount of weather to watch over the next 4 days...and I was trying to cover all the bases. Maybe I may have gone too far in trying doing that...But here are a few bullet points to try and simplfy. I will try to simplifyin the future.

- GoMex ULL is moving west at a good clip right now, porbably far enough west that the implications of it are waning for the moment right now.
- Any turn in path that would concern the Eastern Gulf (Florida and Alabama) would only occur in 48-60 hours (Between the Caymans and the Yucatan)...With an extreme unlikelihood of this ever happenning (I'd say 85% chance against is).
- Any turn toward the central gulf states would need to occur before 95 west. Also highly unlikely, but a little more possible that a turn in the eastern gulf.
- Excellent and ever persistant model agreement favors the western Gulf (Mexico and Texas), but there may still be some unanswered questions regarding the future of the Ridge and troughs in the mid latitudes...as well asthe ULL in the gulf and the Atlantic Ridge. Time will tell if the models really do have it right, but I think there are additional questions since the models seem to have an agreeable Hurricane forecast, yet have varying solutions for the mid latitude flow.

BottomLine: I am only rebellious slightly against the models becuase I expect there is still some small level of chance that Dean Could turn in 48+ hours. But the models have been going on toward the west for long enough that is is looking safer and safer for the eastern and central gulf at the moment. I hope this help to clear some things up, but you can PM me with questions if you would like.