| dem05 |
| (User) |
| Sat Aug 18 2007 10:40 PM |
Re: Dean v. Louisiana?
|
I've received a good question from one of our fellow posters...Thought I'd share the question and the response...
Question
I'm just curious....given that most/all people think there is ZERO chance of Dean turning within 48 hours... why do you rebel even slightly? I'm in the eastern gulf coast region... don't expect any impact from Dean at all, but I'm still watching it carefully because, well, it's a freak of nature if nothing else.
Response
I can answer that one...After you read, please take a look at my graphic, because it will give visual presentation. There is a ridge over the Baha Mexico Area that is trying to move west. The pacific trough has the Baha High basically stationary; even though it is pushing on the trough a bit....the base of the trough is to the west of it and is currently keeping it at bay. At the mid latitudes across the continental US, the jet stream, the ridges and the troughs are progressing along, but the southern extension of the jet stream over the pacific is causing the subtropical ridge over Mexico to stay put. I am concerned that this may...MAY cause a log jam in the subtropics and the upper level low over the gulf will eventually stall in the western gulf or over Texas/Mexico...If it stalls around 95 West, the flow in the eastern Gulf will be southerly and Dean will catch up to that (I only give it a 15% chance right now, and that may be very generous). Otherwise, there’s an upper low approaching Oregon and Northern California...It’s moving east and will pass above the ridge over Baha California. One of two things will happen here...More likely, it will curve toward to NE toward North Dakota and Minnesota. However, with the ridge in the middle states heading eastward and the Baha Ridge remaining stationary...it may have enough oomph to start a digging trough across Utah and Texas. That may have some interaction with the gulf ULL and draw it northward...Much like we are seeing with the ULL over the Atlantic that is being drawn up ahead of the jet stream trough off of the NE seaboard. That may increase a treat to the northern coast of TX and/or LA.
With that said...models are in decent agreement...and this is conjecture of some other unlikely possibilities...However, there is still a weak chance of changes and all should track Dean along the Gulf Coast