Hugh
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Sat Aug 18 2007 11:21 PM
Re: Dean v. Louisiana?

Quote:

Truthfully, the deepening we've seen tonight during the ERC of Dean's pressure is more the exception than the norm; usually the pressure will tend to rise somewhat during the eyewall cycles. Not sure why this hasn't happened with Dean, though my initial thoughts center on that warm water eddy it is passing very close to tonight.




That's what I was thinking concerning the pressure, and indeed the pressure in Dean did rise earlier during the ERC, which is why when it began to plummet I figured the ERC was completed, especially given some of the impressive IR images tonight. The real question I'm wondering about is what will happen with Dean once the ERC finally is completed. Since the pressure is already so low, and the hurricane is passing very close to the warm eddy, will that make it more likely that an extremely rapid rise in intensity (wind speed) happens when the 'cane is done with its reorg? I'm feeling a bit of a sense of deja vu. Wilma experienced an extreme pressure drop without an increase in windspeeds - in fact the windspeed on the 11pm advisory for Wilma was 145mph, if my memory is correct - and then overnight, the bottom fell out - literally - and when the recon returned to the storm the next morning, the record books were rewritten. Can history repeat itself?

Edit: Woah... the latest IR image... and the latest water vapor image... is so odd. It's like much of the moisture in Dean just got sucked out of it. Cloud tops have warmed significantly, and seemingly suddenly. The fringes of Dean are now onshore in extreme southern Hispanola. Could interactions with land have had such a massive impact already?


IREVISED...I see what you are talking about on the GHCC looper...there is some cloudtop warming occuring at the moment, but I think you will see the CDO get colder here pretty shortly. JK



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