It does appear the Erc is nearing completion as you said & coupled with the DMax I would not be surprised to see Dean reach Cat5 by the morning. Don't think it will be tonight. My understanding is it takes some time for the storm to "recover" if you will. Which would also explain the winds not coordinating with the pressure...it takes time for the winds to catch up to the decrease in pressure.
Dem5..I've enjoyed your thoughts on Dean. Some 14 hrs ago I noticed the trough over Georgia was stationary & a recent glance still appears so. Is that an insignificant or incorrect observation?
Like you I find the models a useful tool at times but it appears that since we have so many different players in determining the final destination of Dean that something is being missed or under/over analyzed by the models.