I'm gonna go with Mike on this statement. The chances are looking pretty low of a turn, my comments have been geared toward the overallpattern and the players that could pose alow chance turn, but they may have decreased even more since my last post...Still something to eye as a just in case, but not to be taken too much more seriously at this point based on model agreement and etc. The NHC probably does have this about nailed as I'm watching additional upper level interaction tonight.

Many of us have been talking about the possiblility of the ULL over the gulf being held back...In doing so, we have failed to talk about the full ramifications if it continues tomove toward the western Gulf. The Gulf ULL is picking up some moisture as it moves over those same upper 80-90degreewaters that Dean will visitin a few days as we speak. No, DO NOT look at this ULL for tropical development! But Texas has had a lot of rain this year, Erin agrivated that, and my heart really goes to Texas if the ULL over the Gulf moves that way...drops more rain...then Dean comes along and drops even more. Even with a path into Mexico, Dean is large enough to be a potentially painful...agrivating moisture source to Texas if things progress as forecast.

P.S. Side note, Fox News has been showing some amazing pictures from inside the eye of Dean today. The Air Force Rocon Group provided them exclusively to Fox News. I just checked their website, unfortunately...they are not available there yet.