There was really no question on this making a W path...but as each day goes by...you can really only account for up to 3 days in advance for each models reliablity...after that...margin of error increase dramaticly. There was no real threat except TX and that was only cause it was more then 5 days out. You go back 5 days ago and the whole U.S. Coastline was in the error cone and even it may have been a fish storm.

Most Mets and models were thinking MX some hype was over TX but that wasnt and really still isnt out of the question cause its more then 3 days out ...aka 4. Overall expect a west - WNW path to continue till landfall near 20 N or I think just south of there giving Cozumel gusts to near H1 then a Cat 2 remaking landfall sometime on Thurs give or take alittle.

Current concern is Jamaica as it should move about 50-100 miles south of the Island Sunday evening and night.