dem05
(User)
Sun Aug 19 2007 06:39 PM
Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica

Well...Nothing to significant to write home about that will affect long term track...The upper level low seems to be on a continued westward moment. Frommy earlier post today, it is something to watch...but with low probability of effects.

With that said, I will not be surprised to see a slightly north of track motion commencing any time from now through the next 18 hours...Which will bemore of a case of shorter term motions as the Upper Ridge in the Atlantic and the ULL in the Gulf interact. I base this on some interesting observations of the Upper level flow over the Bahamas/Florida late thismorning and this afternoon. This morning, the upper level flow was more out of the east-souteast. Asof now, this flow has tightened up a bit (more wind barbs and some higher winds). Also...these winds are now coming out of the SE instead of the ESE. So this may help to impart a slightly North of track motion over the next 6-18 hours. In the longer term (24+ hours) however... I don't see any significant change to the overall thinking at this time.

LINK: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html



Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center