9PM EDT 20 August 2007 Update

Dean has become this season's first category 5 hurricane within the last 12 hours before projected landfall on Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. If Dean maintains this intensity until landfall, it will become the first category 5 landfall in the Atlantic basin since Hurricane Andrew in 1992.

1PM EDT 20 August 2007 Update

Hurricane Dean may become a category 5 hurricane today as it is in optimal conditions for it to occur, and it's back to a single eyewall structure now.

It should make Landfall in the Yucatan in Mexico just north of Belize, and then reenter the Gulf in the Bay of Campeche before entering Central Mexico, it has time to restrengthen in the Bay of Campeche, potentially back to a major hurricane again before the final landfall, past that it may even enter the Eastern Pacific.

Also, Tropical Cyclone Formation alert issued for 92L which means it may form into a depression within 48 hours or so
Chances for Tropical Development of Wave Northeast of the Caribbean (92L) within the next 48 hours
Code:


(forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
            [------*-------------]

9AM EDT 20 August 2007 Update
Beyond Dean, a new system is showing signs of formation northeast of the Caribbean. Being officially referred to as "Invest 92L". This system appears headed toward tropical development.

Initial model runs are usually sketchy, but they currently suggest that Florida and the southeastern US may need to pay attention to it.

This system is roughly 1585 miles east southeast of Central Florida, and the center is near 22.5N, 56.0W. Movement is west northwest at 17MPH, and should continue that and potentially trend more westward (based on the sketchy initial model runs), forward speed may increase up to 21-23MPH.

If it were to affect the US, the current thinking is that it would be approaching around Friday or Saturday.

More specifically, Cape Hatteras to Miami should pay attention to the system, at least until we get a better handle on it. Assuming the high weakens it may mean more on the north side of that, if it doesn't then Florida needs to watch more (the latter is the marginally more likely scenario at the moment). All that is speculation at this point, so first off, watch if this system persists and develops, and if it does watch the future track of it.

This location historically is known for storms this time of year, some very infamous storms have started in this general area.

Want to take a guess what this system will do? Go here in the Forecast lounge to speculate and suggest.

More on this later.

Original Update
Hurricane Dean has recently cleared the island of Jamaica, from which disaster reports should begin to trickle in during the overnight hours and into the day on Monday. Next up is the Yucatan Peninsula, as it appears that Dean will pass south of the Cayman Islands.

The eyewall replacement cycles that fortunately held Dean's intensity in check over the past day or two appeared to end earlier this evening according to aircraft reconnaissance, setting the stage for intensification over the energy-rich waters of the northwest Caribbean Sea. More recent reports suggest another eyewall cycle may be imminent, however. Despite that, even tonight as Dean moves away from Jamaica, the central pressure is slowly beginning to fall. The current NHC forecast calls for intensification to a powerful category 5 hurricane within the next 24-36 hours before landfall on the Yucatan peninsula early on Tuesday:

Model guidance is currently tightly clustered on impacts to the central Yucatan and central mainland Mexican coastlines from Dean:

The upper level low currently slowing down in the Gulf of Mexico is not expected to significantly impact the track forecast for Dean. This slowing had been anticipated by the models, which also suggest it to start to move out again during the day on Monday. Unless something drastic changes to alter that, it looks like the United States will stay mostly in the clear from Dean, unfortunately for Mexico.

Stay tuned through the day on Monday and through the week ahead for more on ean.

Event Related Links:

Jamaican Media
Jamaican Radio (106 Power)
Go Jamaica Hurricane Dean Watch
Jamaica Gleaner (Jamaican Newspaper)
Jamaica Observer (Newspaper)
Nationwide Radio (Hurricane coverage and live reports
starting evening 8/18.)
Jamaican News/Talk 93
Love 101 Radio
Kool 97 Radio
Irie FM Radio

Other
Jamaican Webcam recording... Treasure Beach
Jim Williams will be doing a live show on Dean tonight at hurricane city (8PM EDT)
Jamaican StormCarib Reports
Jamaican Meteorological Service
{{Radarlink|jua|San Juan, Puerto Rico}}
Guantanamo Bay, Cuba Radar
Southern Cuba Radar (Has Jamaica partially in range
Cuban Radar Mosaic (flhurricane long term recording of this radar)
Hurricane Watch.net
Microwave imagery of Dean
Martinique Radar Animation Recording
{{StormCarib}}
{{StormLinks|Dean|04|4|2007|1|Hurricane Dean (Far Eastern Atlantic)}}
{{StormLinks|92L|92|6|2007|2|92L (Northeast of Caribbean))}}