| dem05 |
| (User) |
| Mon Aug 20 2007 05:19 AM |
Re: Dean Past Jamaica, Still Moving West
|
I fear that Hurricane Dean is gonna turn me into a Devils Advocate here...Those who know me, that is definately not my MO...but I still don't feel 100% on Dean and I have to let my conscience be my guide tonight.
As a man of my own convictions I never waffle…After saying that, I’m sorry to say I’m going to waffle. If I am wrong in the end, I eat my crow medium rare (Trying to lighten the mood here) and I owe apologies to all for being wrong and going against the grain.
The ULL has been a player in my discussion for days now. After many days, I gave up the grey ghost to the models this morning…They all seemed to be getting along very well, but through the day and tonight…The Bam split, the GFDL and HWRF differed, and the GFS and GFS ensemble have done their thing here or there. The gap has widened and I must balk. Tonight, I must digress, but my ULL discussion is still definitely different that it was on Thursday, Friday and Saturday. Best to just bullet point this stuff.
-This morning, the ridge was better defined in the Atlantic, with and axis spreading roughly off the South Carolina Coast on Vapor.
-Also this morning, the ULL in the Gulf was around 88W moving west, but it had intensified during the night and also gained better representation.
-In addition, the flow over the Bahamas and Florida between the ULL and the High could be defined as out of the ESE or the SE this morning...since that time, it has veered into a flow from the SE to a hard SSE wind on Water Vapor.
-Initially, my primary basis for Gulf ULL low concerns stemmed from a stall of that ULL. It did not happen. The low moved from88W this morning and reached 92-93W as a better defended system today. Since then, it has not done something not as bad as stalling out, but it has done something else that I see as not good as moving on…It has turned north. All the models…even the latest runs, were based on this ULL moving into southern-middle TX, then getting snagged north into the jet stream. At this time I’ve only got one thing to say…Not gonna happen that way…And that may impart on the mid level ridge the NHC discussed at 11PM…Considering the ULL is also a Mid-level low now
-Mean time, prior to the northern shift of the ULL, Dean moved 3 degrees west in tandem with the ULL that moved 3 degrees west. The storm did not catch up to the ULL as some have speculated.
-Dean is now as close as it ever was to the ULL, maybe and probably closer than it ever was to the SE flow. And more so, the high off the Carolinas did not take full advantage of spreading west in place of the ULL. If it did, the ESE to SE flow over Florida would have shifted west. Instead, the wind flow sharpened, and veered to out of the SE or SSE. This tells me the ULL-Mid level Low over the Gulf expanded and the ridge did not take full advantage of opportunities to fill the gap. The 399mb (HDW-High) and 699mb (HDW-mid) show wind barbs heading from the southeast and SSE on the latest imagery once again tonight over Florida.
-Finally, here in SW Florida, my porch faces east, I actually watched the clouds move NW by NNW tonight as they grew from cloud base…I figured I would be seeing them move a bit more westerly based on the forecast of increasing mid to upper level ridging,
-There are other factors I see tonight, but I can’t bullet forever. Please review the WV links, formulate your own educated opinions…And don’t be amazed if there is at least alight course change by morning. In particular, ALL models had the Gulf ULL moving into Texas and Mexico…All models built more ridging on the east side of the ULL by now too. We are not seeing that now, and this is the first bugaboo hint that there may be a surprise course correction on the horizon. Even if the change is only subtle.
From this mornings post and in the end, the 1% for eastern Gulf is still there (almost feels like 10% now, but I won’t go there.). The 5% for the central Gulf is still there (Similarly, I feel it’s more like 15% now, but it’s just not a good to go there either), and I’d keep the western gulf at 25%.