cieldumort
(Moderator)
Mon Aug 20 2007 02:56 AM
Re: Dean Past Jamaica, Still Moving West

It appears that Dean will probably follow in the historic footsteps as such memorable hurricanes as Gilbert & Wilma, and bomb out a bit in the northwestern Caribbean, while traversing extremely high oceanic heat content. Internal structural changes may limit this, both in terms of duration and intensity, but a Category Five Dean on approach to the Yucatan would seem to be just about baked in the cake, now.

At this hour the eye has started clearing out again, while cloud tops have grown ever colder.

In regards to the ULL's heading, I really still see the movement as due west, but with perhaps a teeny-tiny bit of north-south stretching. The most recent TWD tells that NHC does not discern any shift to the north at this time, either. As tricky as ULLs are to read, it's possible that it is preparing to begin shifting north, but a more likely scenario might be that this is nothing more than some early indications of a future shearing out... perhaps.

Ironically, it is this perception of a little bit of digging and stretching that I perceive could potentially impact Dean, as maybe the ULL's reach digs a tiny bit further south than models anticipate at this time. Hopefully sooner than later all will have a better grasp on exactly what that mid/upper low is really doing.



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