Looking at IR, the system sure looks to be trying to clear out the old eyewall. Recon is in the air but not to the storm yet, so it will be a little while before we have some good recon data still. 5am NHC said it was undergoing an ERC, so everything is consistent.

Looking at track, the models are becoming more divergent once the system pases over the Yucatan, and I think part of this is that crossing the Yucatan further south will result in more disruption to the system, and that disruption isn't being modeled the same from model to model.

--RC