weather999
(Weather Watcher)
Mon Aug 20 2007 11:07 AM
Re: Dean Past Jamaica, Still Moving West

Quote:

RECENT MICROWAVE DATA SHOW A SINGLE EYEWALL THAT HAS
BECOME BETTER DEFINED WITH COLDER TOPS IN CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL
BE HELD AT 130 KT...BUT LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT DEAN
IS APPROACHING CATEGORY FIVE STATUS...AND IT IS EXPECTED REACH THAT
THRESHOLD LATER TODAY OVER THE DEEP WARM WATERS OF THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN.



From the latest discussion--the single eyewall is apparent in at the latest microwave imagery, and very apparent in AVN, and especially Dvorak (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/bd.jpg).

I'm with Psyber... next recon will probably give us Cat 5, or staying at a Cat 4 until landfall in the Yucatan.

I found it interesting that the GFDL has (finally) forecasted Dean to not reach Cat V status, and at the same time, NHC are "expecting" Dean to reach 5.


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