WTNT02 KNGU 201600Z
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 201600Z AUG 07//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 22.3N 54.7W TO 27.0N 65.8W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
2. A LOW PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 54.7W HAS FORMED
BENEATH INTENSE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. WIND SHEAR HAS BEEN
ANALYZED AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1009MB.
THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS STILL DISORGANZIED.
HOWEVER, AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES INTO WEAK WIND SHEAR AND WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES DOWNSTREAM, TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
ENHANCED OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 211600Z.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/atcf_web/docs/current_storms/al922007.tcf