Clark
(Meteorologist)
Mon Aug 20 2007 07:29 PM
Re: New System

I've gotta wonder about how fast 92L will develop, if it does at all. Looking at current water vapor imagery, Dean is feeding an upper low (TUTT cell) currently over Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. The associated outflow jet is being enhanced by the temperature gradient associated with the warm outflow from Dean, resulting in an increase in vorticity (spin) and an enhancement to the mass sink that is that upper low. I see 92L on the reasonably favorable NE side of that, but I also see it about to get flung west between this upper low and the subtropical ridge to its north. Thinking out loud, I have to wonder if the models are not handling the evolution of the TUTT cell correctly, similar to what happened with Philippe in 2005 (sheared apart by a Rita-enhanced upper low in the face of continual strengthening prognostications). I defer to the experts at NHC on this one, but I don't see anything out there that catches my eye for sudden development.


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