I notice Dean is pretty well covered here...so I really don't have much to add outside of the fact that my points of late last night/ very early thismorning did not pan out....To the relief of the US and with great regret to our Mexican neighbors, it's a bad situation abd I wish them well. Otherwise, I learned some tropical weather lessons (Somethe hard way) via Hurricane Dean, but in the end, what make this site great is that we all share ideas and we all DO learn from one another.

Not as much talk about 92L tonight for very obvious reasons. From my end, it is a little tough to forecast anything...including development with out a bit more organization. I give it a 30-40% shot now...which is down from this morning, where I was starting to feel that something might be a bit better organized by now. That said, I am only basing that on the current organization, and the model support, which is basically showing a wave passage over Florida on the GFS and UKMet from this...and the CMC seems to have backed off of this somewhat.

Outside of this, I'll share what I do see.

On the Vapor loop (Link: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-wv.html ), it does look like 92L will remain in a reatively moist environment...As moisture is spreading westward along with 92L, which is north of the ULL. Otherwise, 92Lmay still be too close to the ULL that is over the Puerto Rico...and it may stay too close for too long...Not sure yet.

On the shortwave loop (Link: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-ir2.html ) , any circulation at the mid levels and/or possible vorticity at the lower levels may be further to the west than Iinitially thought...I'd pegthat area to be around 25N, 65W.

Only time will tell if this will become Felix as it approaches from the east.