Quote:
11:30 AM TWO out, sounds like the NHC is writing the system off. "UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING LESS
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD NEAR 20
MPH."
I do not agree with the statement about unfavorable winds though because if you look at the attachment, this graphic from CIMSS shows wind shear being quite low and no Saharan Air Layer in place.
As I mentioned in a post on 92L in yesterday's thread, it is caught in a shearing environment to the NE of an upper low centered north of Hispaniola. The outflow from Dean helped accelerate the jet stream to the south of this upper low that largely helped to intensify the upper low. Furthermore, the winds are converging at upper levels over the disturbance due to the counterclockwise flow around the upper low and the clockwise flow around a subtropical ridge to its north. As a result, the odds on 92L are not that high for development.
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Re: 92L gone?