dean will end up with around 20 hours over water for it's stretch over the bay of campeche. the inner core looks about as bad as that of dennis of 2005 after it's crossing of cuba... i'd expect the cat 1 rating is on and that it can probably come back up to a 3 before it goes in again, if the recovery starts tonight. some of the modeling is showing the upper system getting over to the pacific and spawning a weak surface system that meanders into the gulf of california.. not terribly likely, but occasionally one of these systems will get over and kick off a pacific system (iris 2001, gert 1993). these systems don't tend to do well.
92L isn't improving any. some of the basic features that will allow it to persist and provide a minor menace to the east coast of florida are unchanged, but it really doesn't have much going for it. the upper low to the south is rending whatever convergence is going on at the southern end, and it doesn't have a great deal of convection to work with. none of the modeling likes it either (gfs has gotten suspiciously quiet, and none of the others seem to like it anymore). considering the time of year i wouldn't be surprised if 92L keeps plodding on until it finds a niche, or if something else starts brewing. tis the season.
ridging persists in the eastern united states and that general pattern keeps trying to hold in most of the medium to long range modeling. when trouble comes, the pattern we've been seeing in august will tend to push it towards land... unless the weak trough in the central atlantic becomes more robust.
HF 2217z21august