a couple more advisories on dean and that should be that. the 03z advisory ought to be the last. dean is most likely too weak for a pacific side reflection to have much of a chance.
away east the upper trough enhanced showers around a weak surface trough continue as 92L. the low level vortmax is now a tad east of eleuthra island in the bahamas, nudging west a tad slower than the upper features around it. there still doesn't seem to be enough low level convergence to force it in the face of the shear aloft. like the nhc says, probably just an enhancement of showers... unless something dramatic happens.
nothing of note to the east of that. itcz is active but nothing of note is on it. emerging wave looks ok but models are skittish with it. some globals show a cut off northeast of bermuda around the weekend into next week. that appears to have as much a chance as anything in the basin for the meanwhile, barring any major deviation from the model consensus.
nhc played the guidance split down the middle with dean into the caribbean, until it starting grouping tight on the left... in which case they went wholeheartedly with it. that was the right move. i kept thinking the upper evolution was too quick and that dean would snag a bit on the upper low ahead of it, but they stayed perfectly in tandem and the hurricane barely passed 20N during it's lifetime. there was climatological precedent for that turn of events. like always i'm a bit too ready to buy into the worse scenarios... dean was strong as hell but it didn't directly hit any place where there was a great deal to break.
HF 2151z22august