something pretty out in the north atlantic--out southeast of newfoundland is a mostly occluded, rather strong low that is cut off from the westerlies. it's north of 40n and well away from support ssts, but must have a decent cold pool aloft since it has a hybrid warm-core look. decent convective ring and eye type feature.. it's a fairly deep low. it's not a tropical entity, though.
wave passing the cv islands has the best chance of any recently. well short of the sure-shot dean was, but it isn't a moon shot either. none of the models like it that much. these essential features have already been addressed by other posters.
stuff in the western atlantic/gulf/carib is all kinda weak and disorganized. don't put much stock in the boc thing, and the pattern won't do anything but push it in right off. anything in the sw carib will shortly be ashore as well. we haven't hit the meat of the season yet, not by far.
HF 2328z25august