allan
(Weather Master)
Sun Aug 26 2007 02:31 PM
Re: Quiet, for Now, in Late August

upcoming 94L?
Perhaps the disturbed area in the Carribean is the area that the NOGAPS has been and still is trying to develop.. I give it alot of credit, it's done well but the storm looks a bit more north to me then what the NOGAPS has it, not that far south.. It's got a good circulation and if it keeps up, we will be talking about 2 invests, 93L and 94L. Things are gonna get active according to the GFS, after it's excellency on Dean, I believe it!

North Atlantic low
The low in the North Atlantic may be a hybrid low.. but they have a right not to call it a sub-tropical storm, it's not near land, it's barely affecting anyone and it would be a waste of a name.. though, I wouldn't be surprised if they called it subtropical in post analysis. SSTs are in the 70s and 60s and lets not forget how Vince in 2005 formed.. So it's a possibility but very low in this case. Looks great on Satellite!
GFS model already insists that this is at least subtropical in nature..
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs/fcst/archive/07082612/13.html
UKMET is hinting at subtropical chararistics
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/ukm/fcst/archive/07082606/8.html
Same appears with the NOGAPS as the UKMET is showing
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/ukm/fcst/archive/07082606/8.html
Amazingly, the CMC is just calling it a cold core low lol
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/cmc/fcst/archive/07082612/8.html

Interesting low!
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/natl/vis-l.jpg



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