the wave near 40w is secluded from the itcz and persistent with the convection. whatever turning is at the low levels is elongated and not well defined. it stands out but has only a little going for it for now... just like the TWO says, slow development if any. the parameters outlined by others are pretty much spot on, but the wave is being underwhelming at the moment.
some of the globals are spinning up a post-frontal low off the mid-atlantic. no real stock in that. some are also lowering the pressures near the ne gulf or off the georgia coast... this general area seems to be turning into a stash for frontal remains just lately and has had a reasonable amount of convective activity around. nothing insidious, though.
thing in the gulf improved much too slowly to get classified, but as it moved ashore was finally starting to develop. another 12 hr and it would probably have been at least a depression. but, that's all she wrote.
the caribbean thing has a similar sort of lot in life. it's not cranking up all that fast. given a couple of days it would be a tropical storm or something. it's going ashore in nicaragua before that.
nothing else of note. eastpac is quiet but starting to show signs of life. the season so far has shown a tendency to follow the pacific-then-atlantic development pattern, if not with great enthusiasm. most models are showing the eastpac popping a couple off.. given the time of year it's probably a good bet that the atlantic will follow in the not too distant future. it's hard for the atlantic to stay quiet more than a week this time of year.
HF 2235z27august