o-k. three things looking good tonight.
they're all well outlined so far... i'll just toss some ideas and see what happens.
94L--that's a storm. it's not developing quickly or anything, but it will be. don't buy much into the guidance as there will likely be more storm there than indicated... but based on its location contact with the caribbean is highly possible. upstream developments will determine it's future track. it's going to have to fight with dry air, but should win out after a bit.
western caribbean--doesn't want to follow the rules. i thought the nhc take of land interaction was sure fire, but the models taking it on a near shore trajectory turned out to be on the ball. possible that high level shear is helping whatever mid-level vorticity is there to translate north, and seems to be providing more ventilation than damage. belize is in the way, though. if it keeps its track more wnw it will cross more ocean in the BoC and possibly succeed where the low that invaded mexico yesterday failed--whatever is at the surface will travel over land and likely allow the upper circulation to become better defined... and take right off when it goes over water.
off the carolinas--didn't see that coming. more shortwave energy got left behind than projected by most models, on a more southerly trajectory. it's going to be stuck in a col and probably move erratically late this week. a shortwave should clip by around weekend time, but it's unclear if this will shunt it off. could just nudge it west then let the ridge grab it again. thing i'm not seeing is how it will shape the environment. this sucker looks like it will develop. it is going to modify the nearby upper features, and lay the groundwork for whatever 94L is to do it's thing.
all three systems can develop. the wave coming off also has some potential. ought to be something out there tomorrow, and probably at least two somethings on thursday.
HF 0218z29august