Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Thu Aug 30 2007 06:42 PM
Re: Tropics Acting Up Again

94L is becomming better organized this evening as satellite images showing an increase in thunderstorms to the south and east of what looks like a center of low pressure. Upper level winds have dropped to 5-10 knots and actually look to lighten further over the next 48 hours. Water temperatures are at 83-85 degrees and temp. should incease as it gets into the carribean. There is still dry air to its north though this should only hold development down over the next 24 hours as water vapor is showing a slight increase in moisture over the system. 48 hours ago I felt it was a 4 now have increased to a 5-6 range. I would like to see tommorow mournings satellite before I increase higher. Models are still mixed as development goes but the track seems to be a west to w-nw for the next 72 hours. I feel the models hold a ridge to its north a bit to strong as an old frontal boundary and a new front moves off the east coast this weekend. I'm looking for a more w-nw as it enters the carribean and a nw early next week before the ridge rebuilds due to a trough over the middle of the US. Turning it back to w-nw or west in time. So yes I feel if this system developes its a western carribean and gulf storm. Too early to even go this far but its a calculated guess. Just a note if anything does develope off the coast of Florida to NC then this may change the track of 94L. Something to watch as I believe next week will see a increase in activity across the atlantic so the quiet before the storm as they say.


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