the can't-quite-develop theme continues.. with the yucatan system almost making it, but hugging the coastline, the stuff off the east coast remaining sheared, and good ol' 94L trucking along half made and without a care. overall it's been an unusually quiet august for a la nina year. yeah, i'm sure dean with it's powerhouse run added a ton of NTC activity, but aside from that august has only managed a weak trickle. the atlantic is overall running a good bit warmer than normal... strange that atmospheric conditions haven't allowed more action to take place. we're getting tight on the statistical peak of the season, so the puttering tropical cyclone activity is not likely to continue.
disturbed weather should hang near the east coast/southeastern u.s. and keep trying to spawn a system. it hasn't succeeded yet, but with the sort of blocky, persistent weakness hanging off the eastern seaboard it becomes a likelihood over time. 94L has real potential to cause trouble if it can develop, but most of the models continue to show a lack of support, and if it does develop it will be tracking more or less along dean's wake. the monster ridge that pushed dean hard west isn't in place, so even though the models show a weak storm tracking westward, a stronger storm could still be a nuisance to folks further north.
interesting westpac typhoon, with a northeastward moving storm banking left in the mid-latitudes under a strong ridge and forecast to recurve hard near eastern japan. bad storm if that verifies. the atlantic reflection would be a jeanne-type system. the atlantic might try to mirror that sort of pattern later on, though getting a storm to coincide with such a thing has long odds.
HF 0115z31august