Well, it certainly is beginning to *look* like the Hurricane Hunters will find a closed off low, with steadily lowering surface pressures. This one has TD and Storm written all over it, just judging by its steadily improving appearance.

It seems likely, IMHO, that there is no turning back now. Felix is in the hopper. While you've all slept overnight, I've been watching this little invest mushroom into something more than just a 'little invest'. (Remember, I am 6 hours behind Florida time)

Judging from the greatly increased aerial coverage and the intensity of convection, I'd hazard that surface pressures are beginning to lower, and banding features are blossoming out everywhere, indicating a steady increase in organization, when all the convection works together to lower surface pressures, which in turn steadily increases the wind speeds.

But of course, you all know this already. It's just always interesting, from a weather hobbyist perspective, to see it happening right before your eyes, time and again. Let's hear it for the animated time-lapse satellite loops!

Additionally, the disturbance is beginning to exhibit a greatly improved upper-level outflow pattern, with good outflow to the NE, and recently, beginning towards the S and SW, as well. Good ventilation will only support intensification.

94L is quite likely to become TS Felix in the not-too-distant future. The TCFA has been out for some time now, the thermodynamic environment is becoming increasingly favorable and the 'negative' factors seem to be dwindling.

It'll be interesting to see what the Recon mission will reveal with regard to thermodynamic structure and wind fields.

And it'll be interesting, too, to see what becomes of the 'alleged' FAMCG (Far Atlantic Monsoon Cyclonic Gyre

), currently cycling within a large area SW of the Cape Verde Islands, in the coming days as it seems that the gyre might be setting up shop there for a'while.

The latest tropical weather discussion (2am EDT, as I write) indicates " ... BROAD ELONGATED LOW / MID LEVEL
CYCLONIC ROTATION COVERING THE AREA FROM 12N-19N BETWEEN 28W-37W WITH SEVERAL POSSIBLE ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATIONS.", which would be entirely consistent with the behavior of a monsoon cyclonic gyre, as discussed in the "Hurricane Ask/Tell" Forum. Pretty interesting stuff. Well worth a look.

Hold onto your hats and batten down the hatches, as it appears that "Ferocious Felix" will be the start to a quick succession of storms in the coming weeks, in a still yet predicted 'above average' season.

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Flash: NHC has just issued a 'SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT'.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIADSAAT+shtml/311310.shtml?

Apparently, they're impressed with its steadily improving satellite signature, as well.