td 6/felix has a heaping collection of model support taking it wnw on a dean redux path. there don't seem to be any synoptic scale caveats here... looks like a straightforward forecast. dean churned the waters along future felix's path... look for a lesser version of the storm, but a similar path seems perfectly reasonable. the more strengthening the more northerly a path is likely. a weaker storm will likely scuttle in nicaragua, a stronger one might head for the yucatan. the emphasis nhc is placing on 'might be a major hurricane' is probably well-founded.
models starting to snoop on the african waves again. not much support for the elongated monsoon trough near 35w with the wave-enhanced convective blip. it will still have a decent chance if a follow-on wave doesn't overtake it... for slow development like the 6/felix system out in front of it.
following wave train is all developed by the 18z gfs. one shows as a long-track hurricane there, with a dubious refusal to recurve into a weakness in the eastern atlantic. persistent disturbed weather near the southeast coast shows some suspicious activity but no tropical cyclone development, but that will be an area to watch nonetheless. the typhoon poised to hit japan after being blocked by a strong ridge, and the future track of henriette in the eastpac into the baja seem to suggest ridging near the east coast in the upcoming timeframe. have to be vigilant for one of these things to develop further north and also take a westerly track.
HF 0336z01september