I found this exerpt of the TWD to be fairly insightful/interesting...

THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED
THROUGH 36 HR...THEN SOME SPREAD OCCURS. THE HWRF AND THE SHALLOW
AND MEDIUM MEAN LAYER BAM MODELS FORECAST A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION
TO A 120 HR POSITION NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...WHILE THE REMAINDER
OF THE GUIDANCE TAKES THE CYCLONE TO BELIZE AND THE SOUTHERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE HWRF SHOWS THE STORM DISSIPATING DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH MAY ACCOUNT FOR ITS MORE NORTHWARD FORECAST
TRACK. THE TRACK FORECAST IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE REMAINDER OF
THE GUIDANCE AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

Traditionally, I have been used to seeing the models demonstrating a more westward biased when they see the system as weaker (shallower)...and a more northward biased when a stronger storm is forecast. In this case, the models are apparently showing the opposite (Per this NHC discussion blurb). I'd love to hear opinions on this, but my take is that a stronger system in this circumstance will strengthen the low/mid level ridge to the north and result in a more westward course....WIll be interesting to see if the other models move more toward the BAMS, BAMM, and the HWRF (Yucatan Channel)...or to see if the exact opposite will occur. Overall, the pattern does look like Dean revisited...but I'm sure there will be some interesting tracking differences in the coming days.