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Some of the models are showing a more northern track after four days. Is it possible the high won't build as far as it is supposed to or that there will be a weakness somewhere? I suppose it is still too early to tell. It looks like it is headed straight for Belize but a lot can happen in four days so I do not think the Gulf Coast should dismisss the storm just yet.
Anything is possible, first off...
Much of this HAS to be probabilistically derived.
That being said, I refer you back to post # 77637 of this thread.
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