I'd been watching for that BAM package to come out...I notice that SFWMD has basically updated all the other models as well. In that I also notice that the GFS ensemble (CONU) is now well north of the NHC 11PM as well...In fact, it is the southern outlier compared to BAM, Nogaps, GFDL, HWRF, and UKMET...but it is also north of where Dean slid on shore and it has a greater northern component than Dean did.

I will not model monger as things will likely windshield wiper a bit over time...but for now, the philosophy for track has changed from a westward mover into Belize to one that may be moving in an almost NW heading on approach to the Yucatan...As such, the models are currently seeming to center around the area south of Cozumel (around the BAMD)...Actually, right about where the CONU is pointing as of 6Z. Coincidently, if TD6 is gonna be a stronger storm (i.e. hurricane), I found it interesting that it moved north once again on this run of the BAMD...closer to the BAMM and the BAMS.

At 5AM, I would suspect that the track change will be subtle due to many changes in the overall appearances of the models. I wouldsay the 5AM will be smack in the middle between the 11PM and the 06Z BAMD track. Justin case the models do windshield wiper back.

Also interesting to note that none of the models have decided to grab the reigns and make TD6 ahurricane...Even though it is forecasted...and quite possible that it will do so. I wouldn't put 100% stockinto the major global models just yet.