5AM NHC Discussion...They must be picking up on the potential for model windshield wiper action with Felix based on their updated forceast path...or, and without meaning this with anegative tone...they are coming off of a high confidence with Dean and they may want to watch that Mother Nature does not chomp some finger tips down there...

For the very first time that I can think of, the NHC has absolutely abandoned the models here. In fact, they went as far to say that they dropped the forecast farther south, even though the whole model group generally moved north. The GFS, which they identify as the southern model package is in fact...north of the 11PM forecast as well as even farther north of the 5AM forecast. I'm pretty surprised, but I also know that they know what they are doing...Unfortunately, the NHC discussion did not mention their reasoning for going southward in any way that really backs the models, or why they are using independant thought...but if you look at the SFWMD site for the 00Z runs and Clark's page of the model plots for 06Z...I am sure you will agree. No knock on them, but they sided against conventional practice here. With that said, they must be really on to something....Therefore, in Belize, please note that they have Felix approaching Category 3 strength before landfall...Something to consider in preparations if the track does hold up. Mean time, further north in the Yucatan...you guys know the Hurricane drill too...