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I'd also like to pitch in here. The models do generally favor a path toward Belize or the Yucatan portion Mexico. Toward the end of the guidance package, there is a sizable split between a storm approaching the Yucatan on a westward course, or a NW ward course. Only time will trimline the day 4and 5 in the models into some better agreement. As forthe NAM Model. It does insist on pulling Felix north. With that said, the NAM is not considered one of the reliable hurricane forecast models... ...With that said, the NWS Tallahassee office has included the reasoning for why the NAM wants to pull Felix north...I don't feel the NAM has pulled it down correctly, but model was worthy of mention in Tallahassee Area Forecast Discussion, so it can't be totally discounted either. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 230 PM EDT SAT SEP 1 2007 Exerpt from Short term forecast: ON MONDAY...THE NAM DEEPENS THE TROUGH OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST SLIGHTLY...WHICH IN TURN AFFECTS THE PATH OF FELIX. THE NAM SHOWS A WEAK RIDGE IN OUR AREA WITH SLIGHTLY DRYER AIR EXTENDING DOWN INTO NE GEORGIA. THE GFS SOLUTION IS DIFFERENT. LOW OFF THE GEORGIA COAST. STRONGER RIDGE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. MUCH DRYER AIR IN OUR AREA. THERE IS LESS OF A CONNECTION BETWEEN TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND TROUGH IN THE SOUTHEAST. THE GFS SHOWS NO CONNECTION BETWEEN FELIX AND TROUGH OFF THE EASTCOAST OF US. EAST- WEST RIDGE AXIS BLOCKS ANY CONNECTION. TUESDAY...THE NAM DEPICTS THE TROUGH OFF THE EASTCOAST AND THE ASSOCIATED WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE AXIS REALLY AFFECTS THE PATH OF FELIX DRAWING IT FARTHER NORTHWARD. WESTERN RIDGE BECOMES ELONGATED EXTENDING MORE EASTWARD AND MOVES OVER THE TOP OF THE TROUGH IN TEXAS BRINGING ADDITIONAL DRY AIR INTO THE SOUTHEAST. TIMING IS THE QUESTION...THE GFS SHOWS THE TROUGH OFF THE EASTCOAST FINALLY BEGINNING TO DEEPEN...WITH NO CONNECTION TO FELIX. UPPER HIGH CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD NOW CENTERED IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE GFS DROPS THE POPS ON MONDAY TO 10 PERCENT WEST TO 36 PERCENT SOUTHEAST. HAVE PRETTY MUCH GONE WITH CLIMO ON MONDAY...SOMEWHAT IN BETWEEN THE NAM AND GFS. I HAVE MAINTAINED THE TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS SUGGESTED BY GFS AND MAV. .LONG TERM...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE A VERY SLOW PROCESS...EXPECT POPS TO GRADUALLY RETURN TO NEAR OR JUST ABOVE CLIMO LEVELS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...AS THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVER SO SLOWLY RELINQUISHES ITS HOLD OVER THE SE U.S. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN VERY WEAK AND COMPLEX THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND ANY SLIGHT CHANGES TO IT COULD HAVE DRAMATIC RESULTS ACROSS OUR REGION OVER THE MID-WEEK TIME FRAME...BUT AT THIS TIME...THE PUSH TO REMOVE THE TRAPPED TROPICAL MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE SLOW AND WEAK AT BEST. |